5.3 考研英语阅读模拟试题【难度7.8】经济类

Section II Reading Comprehension 

Part A 

Directions: Read the following four texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D. Mark your answers on the ANSWER SHEET. 

Text 3

Reply rates for the USDA’s annual prospective planting report sank in March to a record low, with just over a third of 73,800 farm operations surveyed answering questions on the acres they will plant this spring. That compares with about 60% of farmers responding in 2018, with replies declining in each year since, according to government records.

Farmers say they are wary of sharing data to inform reports they feel often work against them, especially with abundant harvests in recent years keeping crop prices under pressure. This mounting skepticism echoes a broader loss of trust in government data. Iowa farmer Ben Riensche says the agency’s various surveys are too arduous and the markets often slump after the corresponding reports are released, affecting what they get paid for their crops. “I don’t trust the data, I don’t trust the process, I don’t trust their people,” Riensche said.

Intelligence from the farm is the lifeblood of the USDA’s reports, resulting in forecasts that influence the direction of global crop prices and ultimately help determine how much consumers pay for food. But distrust of the USDA’s conclusions is creating a vicious circle: the lack of contributions makes the agency’s reports less accurate, which in turn generates more farmer skepticism. That lack of accuracy also is resulting in more volatility in futures markets.

A case in point is the January crops report from the USDA, which surprised the market when the agency unexpectedly boosted its estimate for the US corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels. Most had been anticipating a downward revision. Futures in Chicago subsequently posted their biggest daily decline in years. “When the USDA is that far off without much explanation, it creates distrust in future reports,” Darin LaBar, a Michigan farmer, wrote to the USDA.

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden addressed the issue at the agency’s annual meeting with data users. “We understand that the data we provide moves markets; we understand that it affects individual planning decisions by farmers and, therefore, we know that the data we provide needs to be correct,” he said. The National Agricultural Statistics Service also stated it is working to address declining response rates.

However, farmers themselves admit to human error in the process. Montana farmer Sarah Degn said she has little faith in the reports because producers—herself included—often fill them out while pressed for time and distracted by all their responsibilities on the farm. “If you’re in a hurry, you’re just trying to remember the numbers off the top of your head,” said Degn. “So I’ve always questioned the accuracy.”

Former USDA chief economist Seth Meyer views the data the agency collects as the backbone of all the analysis and aid it provides for the agriculture sector. When farmers don’t participate, the data suffers, and then farmers lose even more faith. “This isn’t the farmers’ fault, per se, but it also can’t be solved without them,” Meyer said.

The information the agency solicits is used to forecast plantings and harvests, and estimate domestic and global inventories. USDA Undersecretary Richard Fordyce sees a potential solution in the new “One Farmer, One File” initiative, meant to streamline how the USDA gets and internally shares information from growers applying for federal loans. “We could probably help pre-populate survey responses,” Fordyce noted.

Stephen Nicholson, head of crops at agriculture lender Rabobank, worries that low participation is eroding the agency’s reputation as a gold standard of agricultural information. “I don’t want to lose that standard,” Nicholson said, adding that he encourages farmers to fill out the surveys because it “gives the market better data, better information.”

31. Why are farmers increasingly reluctant to participate in the USDA surveys?[A] They lack the technical skills to navigate the new digital platform.[B] They feel the resulting data negatively impacts their crop revenues.[C] They are intentionally manipulating the futures market for profit.[D] They suspect the government is selling their personal data to lenders.

32. What does the "vicious circle" (Paragraph 3) refer to?[A] Low participation leads to inaccurate data, which further erodes farmers' trust.

[B] Falling crop prices force farmers to plant more, causing oversupply and lower prices.[C] Government subsidies increase agricultural output but decrease international demand.[D] Inaccurate market forecasts cause consumers to pay more, reducing food consumption.

33. The January crops report is mentioned in Paragraph 4 to illustrate ________.

[A] how climate change unexpectedly boosted US corn yields[B] why the USDA needs to hire more experienced economists[C] how inaccurate estimates can trigger severe market volatility[D] why farmers should rely on Chicago futures instead of USDA data

34. According to Sarah Degn, the inaccuracy of the reports is partly due to ________.[A] the flawed algorithm used by the USDA's new software[B] the lack of financial incentives for completing the survey[C] the deliberate fabrication of numbers by angry producers[D] the hasty and careless responses provided by busy farmers

35. The "One Farmer, One File" initiative aims to improve the situation by ________.[A] punishing farmers who refuse to share their agricultural data[B] reducing the survey burden through internal data sharing[C] providing higher federal loans to cooperative farm operations[D] replacing human surveys with advanced satellite imagery

附注：根据历年考研英语真题阅读题源外刊等，摘选最新文章，模拟仿真出题。

参考答案见以下。

Quick look: BACDB

31.【正确答案】B【解析】题型：因果细节题定位： 第二段第一、三句“Farmers say they are wary of sharing data to inform reports they feel often work against them... the markets often slump after the corresponding reports are released, affecting what they get paid for their crops.”（农民们说，他们对分享数据来生成那些他们认为往往对他们不利的报告持谨慎态度……相关报告发布后，市场往往会大幅下跌，影响了他们农作物的报酬。）分析： 原文明确指出，农民不愿意参加调查是因为他们觉得这些报告“对他们不利（work against them）”，报告发布后市场价格下跌，直接影响了他们的农作物收入。选项 B“他们觉得由此产生的数据对他们的农作物收入产生了负面影响”是对原文“affecting what they get paid”的精准同义替换。干扰项：[A] 他们缺乏浏览新数字平台的技术技能，文中未提及技术障碍；[C] 他们有意操纵期货市场以牟利，农民是市场波动的受害者而非操纵者；[D] 他们怀疑政府将个人数据卖给贷款人，属于无中生有。

32.【正确答案】A【解析】题型：句意推断题定位： 第三段第二句“But distrust of the USDA’s conclusions is creating a vicious circle: the lack of contributions makes the agency’s reports less accurate, which in turn generates more farmer skepticism.”分析： 原文对“恶性循环（vicious circle）”给出了直接的冒号解释：由于不信任，农民不贡献数据（lack of contributions），这使得报告不准确；而报告不准确又反过来（in turn）引发了农民更多的怀疑（skepticism）。选项 A“低参与度导致数据不准确，这进一步削弱了农民的信任”完美还原了这一循环逻辑。干扰项：[B] 农作物价格下跌迫使农民种植更多，导致供过于求和价格更低，这是经济学上的蛛网模型，并非文中提到的数据恶性循环；[C] 政府补贴增加产量但减少需求，文中未提及补贴；[D] 不准确的预测导致消费者支付更多，虽然第一句提到决定消费者付多少钱，但恶性循环的具体内涵是“数据不准与农民不信任”之间的循环。

33.【正确答案】C【解析】题型：例证推断题定位： 第三段最后一句“That lack of accuracy also is resulting in more volatility in futures markets.”与第四段“A case in point is the January crops report... Futures in Chicago subsequently posted their biggest daily decline in years.”分析： 第三段末尾提出论点：数据不准确导致期货市场出现更多波动（volatility）。紧接着第四段用“A case in point（一个恰当的例子）”引入了一月份的作物报告：由于USDA意外大幅上调玉米产量预期，导致芝加哥期货创下多年来最大单日跌幅。这个例子正是为了说明预测不准确如何引发市场剧烈震荡。选项 C“不准确的估计如何引发严重的市场波动”是最佳答案。干扰项：[A] 气候变化如何意外提高美国玉米产量，原文未提及气候变化；[B] 为什么USDA需要雇佣更有经验的经济学家，文中未讨论人事问题；[D] 为什么农民应依赖芝加哥期货而非USDA数据，芝加哥期货暴跌是结果，而非作者建议的替代方案。

34.【正确答案】D【解析】题型：事实细节题定位： 第六段第二、三句“...because producers—herself included—often fill them out while pressed for time and distracted... ‘If you’re in a hurry, you’re just trying to remember the numbers off the top of your head,’ said Degn.”分析： 农民Sarah Degn承认，报告不准确部分是因为农民自己在填表时“时间紧迫且分心（pressed for time and distracted）”，如果在赶时间（in a hurry），就只能“凭脑海中的记忆（off the top of your head）”随便填数字。选项 D“忙碌的农民提供的匆忙和粗心的回答”准确概括了这一人为错误的原因。干扰项：[A] USDA新软件使用的算法有缺陷，文中指出是农民填得不准，而非软件算法问题；[B] 缺乏完成调查的财务激励，文中未提及财务激励；[C] 愤怒的生产者故意捏造数字，原文强调的是“赶时间/凭记忆”造成的误差，而非“故意捏造（deliberate fabrication）”。

35.【正确答案】B【解析】题型：事实细节题定位： 第八段第二、三句“...initiative, meant to streamline how the USDA gets and internally shares information from growers... ‘We could probably help pre-populate survey responses,’ Fordyce noted.”分析： 原文指出，“One Farmer, One File”倡议旨在简化USDA获取和“内部共享（internally shares）”农民信息的方式。Fordyce指出，通过内部共享其他部门已有的数据，可以帮助“预先填充（pre-populate）”调查问卷，从而减轻农民的填表负担。选项 B“通过内部数据共享减少调查负担”精准提炼了该倡议的核心目的。干扰项：[A] 惩罚拒绝分享数据的农民，文中并未提出惩罚措施；[C] 为合作的农场提供更高的联邦贷款，联邦贷款是获取数据的来源途径，倡议的目的不是提高贷款额度，而是“共享数据以预填问卷”；[D] 用先进的卫星图像取代人工调查，文中并未提到卫星图像技术。

【词汇注释】

【参考译文】

美国农业部（USDA）年度预期种植报告的回复率在3月份降至历史最低点，在接受调查的73,800家农场中，只有略多于三分之一的农场回答了关于他们今春种植面积的问题。根据政府记录，相比之下，2018年约有60%的农民做出了回复，此后回复率逐年下降。

农民们表示，他们对分享数据来生成那些他们认为往往对他们不利的报告持谨慎态度，特别是在近年来丰收导致农作物价格面临压力的情况下。这种日益增长的怀疑态度反映了人们对政府数据更广泛的信任流失。爱荷华州农民本·里恩舍说，该机构的各种调查太繁琐了，而且在相关报告发布后，市场往往会大幅下跌，影响了他们农作物的报酬。“我不信任数据，不信任过程，也不信任他们的人，”里恩舍说。

来自农场的情报是USDA报告的命脉，其生成的预测会影响全球农作物价格的走向，并最终帮助决定消费者为食物支付多少钱。但对USDA结论的不信任正在形成一个恶性循环：数据的缺乏使得该机构的报告变得不够准确，这反过来又引发了农民更多的怀疑。这种准确性的缺乏也导致了期货市场的更多波动。

一个恰当的例子是USDA一月份的农作物报告，当时该机构出人意料地将美国玉米产量的估值上调至创纪录的170.2亿蒲式耳，震惊了市场。多数人原本预计会向下修正。芝加哥的期货价格随后创下了多年来的最大单日跌幅。“当USDA的偏差如此之大且没有给出太多解释时，就会造成对未来报告的不信任，”密歇根州农民达林·拉巴尔在写给USDA的信中说。

USDA副部长斯蒂芬·瓦登在该机构与数据用户的年度会议上谈到了这个问题。“我们明白我们提供的数据会撼动市场；我们明白它会影响农民个人的计划决策，因此，我们知道我们提供的数据必须是准确的，”他说。国家农业统计局也表示，它正在努力解决回复率下降的问题。

然而，农民自己也承认在这个过程中存在人为错误。蒙大拿州农民莎拉·德格恩说，她对这些报告几乎没有信心，因为生产者——包括她自己在内——经常是在时间紧迫且被农场里的各种责任分心的情况下填写问卷的。“如果你在赶时间，你只能凭脑海中的记忆去拼凑数字，”德格恩说。“所以我一直质疑其准确性。”

前USDA首席经济学家塞思·迈耶将该机构从农民那里收集的数据视为其为农业部门提供所有分析和援助的支柱。他说，当农民不参与时，数据质量就会下降，然后农民就会对机构失去更多的信任。“这本身并不是农民的错，但没有他们，这个问题也无法解决，”迈耶说。

该机构索求的信息被用于预测种植和收获情况，并估计国内和全球库存。USDA副部长理查德·福代斯在新的“一农一档（One Farmer, One File）”倡议中看到了潜在的解决方案。该计划旨在简化USDA从申请联邦贷款的种植者那里获取并在内部共享信息的方式。“我们或许可以帮助预先填充调查问卷的回复，”福代斯指出。

农业贷款机构荷兰合作银行的农作物主管斯蒂芬·尼科尔森担心，低参与度正在侵蚀该机构作为农业信息黄金标准的声誉。“我不想失去那个标准，”尼科尔森说，并补充道他鼓励农民填写调查问卷，因为这“能为市场提供更好的数据、更好的信息。”

附注：