外刊真题题源泛读39:Wisdom of Crowds 群体的智慧(D篇题源2023年高考题源)

酌情取舍，仅供参考

外刊真题题源泛读39：Wisdom of Crowds 群体的智慧（D篇题源2023年高考题源）

私家英语

一、基础信息表

二、英文原文

On March 7, 1907 — almost 111 years ago to the day — the English statistician Francis Galton published a peculiar observation.

At a county fair held in Plymouth, 800 visitors had participated in a competition to guess the weight of an ox. While most people's estimates were too high or too low — falling an average of 37 lbs. away from the true weight of 1,198 lbs. — the median of everyone's guess was off by only 9 lbs., or less than 1 percent of the true weight of the ox.

This example illustrates what has come to be known as the "wisdom of crowds" effect. In some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates can be quite accurate, even when the estimators have no special expertise.

"The average competitor," Galton wrote of the ox competition, "was probably as well fitted for making a just estimate of the dressed weight of the ox, as an average voter is of judging the merits of most political issues on which he votes."

The wisdom of crowds capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren't always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. That's why the effect benefits from a large and diverse "crowd." If people are similar in the sense that they tend to make the same errors, then their errors won't cancel each other out. A crowd with many overestimators will yield a global average that still falls too high; a crowd with many underestimators will yield a global average that still falls too low.

三、全文中文翻译

1907 年 3 月 7 日，距今差不多 111 年前，英国统计学家弗朗西斯・高尔顿发表了一项奇特观察。

在普利茅斯举办的一场县集市上，800 名参观者参加了一场猜测一头公牛重量的比赛。大多数人的估值要么偏高、要么偏低，平均和真实重量 1198 磅相差 37 磅；但是所有人猜测值的中位数仅仅偏差 9 磅，不足公牛真实重量的 1%。

这个案例阐释了如今广为人知的“群体智慧” 效应。在某些情况下，大量相互独立估值的平均值可以相当准确，哪怕估值者并不具备专业知识。

谈及这场猜公牛重量比赛，高尔顿写道：“普通参赛者未必能够公允估出这头屠宰后公牛重量，就如同普通选民很难评判自己投票的大多数政治议题好坏。”

群体智慧利用了这样一个事实：人们犯错的时候，错误并不总是一模一样。一部分人倾向高估，另一部分人倾向低估。足够多的错误取平均值之后，错误会互相抵消，得到更加精准的估值。这就是该效应有赖于庞大且多元化的 “群体” 的原因。如果大家趋同，容易犯下同样错误，错误就无法互相抵消。如果群体里面大多数人高估，整体平均值依然偏高；如果大多数人低估，整体平均值依旧偏低。

四、核心生词 & 短语积累

五、语法填空

阅读下面短文，在空白处填入 1 个适当的单词或括号内单词的正确形式。

On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton 1.(publish) a peculiar observation. At a county fair 2.(hold) in Plymouth, 800 visitors took part in the ox‑weight guessing contest, 3.____ most individual guesses deviated from reality. The median of all guesses, 4.____ was merely 9 lbs off the true weight, shows the "wisdom of crowds" effect. Ordinary people lacking special 5.(expertise) can also make decent judgements. Some people tend 6.(overestimate), while others underestimate. When these errors 7.(average) together, they cancel each other 8., 9.(produce) a more accurate estimate. The effect calls for a 10.(diversity) crowd of participants.

答案：

1. published 
   【有提示词｜时态】动作发生在 1907 年，使用一般过去时
2. held 
   【有提示词｜过去分词】fair 和 hold 是被动关系，过去分词作后置定语
3. although/though 
   【无提示词｜状语从句】引导让步状语从句
4. which 
   【无提示词｜定语从句】which 引导非限制性定语从句，指代 the median of all guesses
5. expertise 
   【有提示词｜名词单复数】expertise 专业知识，不可数名词
6. to overestimate 
   【有提示词｜不定式】固定搭配 tend to      do sth. 倾向于做某事
7. are averaged 
   【有提示词｜语态】errors 与 average 是被动关系，一般现在时被动语态
8. out 
   【无提示词｜介词】固定短语 cancel each other out     相互抵消
9. producing 
   【有提示词｜现在分词】现在分词作结果状语，表示自然而然的结果
10. diverse 
    【有提示词｜形容词】把名词 diversity 变为形容词 diverse 修饰名词 crowd